CS5 Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the engagement of stakeholders (D5.23)

Arctic stakeholders  are faced with uncertainty as to the future development of social, political, economic, and environmental conditions, not least due to the ongoing transformations inflicted by climate change. In Blue-Action, the case study focusing on “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic” (CS5) has employed a specific co-design and engagement methodology to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) in Russia, to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. This methodology is the Foresight Exercise.

The Foresight Exercise was conducted in the form of a series of three international workshops over 10 months between late 2017 and late 2018. The result thereof were three scenarios for the possible futures of the YNAO, which were co-designed by stakeholders participating in the workshops and representing environmental NGOs, indigenous peoples’ organisations, business, media, policy-makers, representatives of local communities, and scientists from the natural and social sciences. Results of the workshops were presented in the Blue-Action deliverables D5.20, D5.21, and D5.22 (accessible in https://zenodo.org/communities/blue-actionh2020).

This present deliverable takes stock of the Foresight Exercise from the perspective of the stakeholder engagement methodology.

While the scenarios constitute the main result with regards to content, a major aspect of this exercise is also the reflection on the applied  Foresight Exercise in order to:

• put the scenarios into the context of their evolutionary history,
• ensure the that the results of the exercise are put into the right perspective and are used accordingly, and
• provide “lessons learned” for the future work of researchers and stakeholders concerned with supporting decision-making under conditions of stark uncertainty in the Arctic and beyond.

This reflection is conducted with this deliverable, delivering both a quantitative (number of contacted stakeholders, participant group size, and distribution of stakeholder groups) and qualitative (challenges, weaknesses and strengths of the stakeholder engagement method, and success factors) analysis of the engagement of stakeholders during this information service case study.