A multi-system evaluation of predictive capacity over the Arctic and mid-latitudes at the seasonal time scale

This poster, presented at the S2S/S2D International conferences in Boulder, CO (USA) in September 2018, shows evaluations of H2020-APPLICATE stream 1 seasonal re-forecasts over the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and Arctic region, for June-July-August (May initialization) and December-January-February (November initialization), over a common re-forecast period of 22 years.

Skill in forecasting anomalies for sea level pressure and near-surface temperature is assessed using a fair CRPSS and grid-point correlation.

For sea ice, metrics introduced by Goessling et al. (2016, 2018) show the ability of these models to represent the position of the ice edge according to forecast time, using NSIDC data as a reference.