Data and Code for Yeager et al., 2022: Enhanced Skill and Signal-to-noise in an Eddy-Resolving Decadal Prediction System

The sensitivity of decadal prediction system performance to model resolution is examined by comparing results from low- and high-resolution (LR and HR) predictions conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The primary difference between the two systems is the horizontal grid spacing of the ocean and atmosphere models (1° for both in LR; 0.1° and 0.25°, respectively, in HR), permitting a first direct comparison of how skill and signal-to-noise characteristics change when moving to the ocean eddy-resolved modeling regime. HR exhibits significantly increased skill and enhanced signal-to-noise for atmospheric fields compared to LR. This result suggests that mesoscale atmosphere-ocean interaction, which is present in HR but absent in LR, is a key mechanism involved in the transmission of predictable signals from the ocean to the atmosphere. Climate predictions can potentially be improved (and the signal-to-noise paradox alleviated) through explicit representation of ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere.